+
+ Many accounts, including the one in Gleick’s book, date the discovery of this butterfly effect to 1961, with the paper following in 1963. But in November 1960, Lorenz described it during the Q&A session following a talk he gave at a conference on numerical weather prediction in Tokyo. After his talk, a question came from a member of the audience: “Did you change the initial condition just slightly and see how much different results were?”
+
+
+ “As a matter of fact, we tried out that once with the same equation to see what could happen,” Lorenz said. He then started to explain the unexpected result, which he wouldn’t publish for three more years. “He just gives it all away,” Rothman said now. But no one at the time registered it enough to scoop him.
+
+
+ In the summer of 1961, Hamilton moved on to another project, but not before training her replacement. Two years after Hamilton first stepped on campus, Ellen Fetter showed up at MIT in much the same fashion: a recent graduate of Mount Holyoke with a degree in math, seeking any sort of math-related job in the Boston area, eager and able to learn. She interviewed with a woman who ran the LGP-30 in the nuclear engineering department, who recommended her to Hamilton, who hired her.
+
+
+ Once Fetter arrived in Building 24, Lorenz gave her a manual and a set of programming problems to practice, and before long she was up to speed. “He carried a lot in his head,” she said. “He would come in with maybe one yellow sheet of paper, a legal piece of paper in his pocket, pull it out, and say, ‘Let’s try this.’”
+
+
+ The project had progressed meanwhile. The 12 equations produced fickle weather, but even so, that weather seemed to prefer a narrow set of possibilities among all possible states, forming a mysterious cluster which Lorenz wanted to visualize. Finding that difficult, he narrowed his focus even further. From a colleague named Barry Saltzman, he borrowed just three equations that would describe an even simpler nonperiodic system, a beaker of water heated from below and cooled from above.
+
+
+ Here, again, the LGP-30 chugged its way into chaos. Lorenz identified three properties of the system corresponding roughly to how fast convection was happening in the idealized beaker, how the temperature varied from side to side, and how the temperature varied from top to bottom. The computer tracked these properties moment by moment.
+
+
+ The properties could also be represented as a point in space. Lorenz and Fetter plotted the motion of this point. They found that over time, the point would trace out a butterfly-shaped fractal structure now called the Lorenz attractor. The trajectory of the point — of the system — would never retrace its own path. And as before, two systems setting out from two minutely different starting points would soon be on totally different tracks. But just as profoundly, wherever you started the system, it would still head over to the attractor and start doing chaotic laps around it.
+
+
+
+
+
+ The attractor and the system’s sensitivity to initial conditions would eventually be recognized as foundations of chaos theory. Both were published in the landmark 1963 paper. But for a while only meteorologists noticed the result. Meanwhile, Fetter married John Gille and moved with him when he went to Florida State University and then to Colorado. They stayed in touch with Lorenz and saw him at social events. But she didn’t realize how famous he had become.
+
+
+ Still, the notion of small differences leading to drastically different outcomes stayed in the back of her mind. She remembered the seagull, flapping its wings. “I always had this image that stepping off the curb one way or the other could change the course of any field,” she said.
+
+
+ Flight Checks
+
+
+ After leaving Lorenz’s group, Hamilton embarked on a different path, achieving a level of fame that rivals or even exceeds that of her first coding mentor. At MIT’s Instrumentation Laboratory, starting in 1965, she headed the onboard flight software team for the Apollo project.
+
+
+ Her code held up when the stakes were life and death — even when a mis-flipped switch triggered alarms that interrupted the astronaut’s displays right as Apollo 11 approached the surface of the moon. Mission Control had to make a quick choice: land or abort. But trusting the software’s ability to recognize errors, prioritize important tasks, and recover, the astronauts kept going.
+
+
+ Hamilton, who popularized the term “software engineering,” later led the team that wrote the software for Skylab, the first U.S. space station. She founded her own company in Cambridge in 1976, and in recent years her legacy has been celebrated again and again. She won NASA’s Exceptional Space Act Award in 2003 and received the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2016. In 2017 she garnered arguably the greatest honor of all: a Margaret Hamilton Lego minifigure.
+
+
+
+
+
+ Fetter, for her part, continued to program at Florida State after leaving Lorenz’s group at MIT. After a few years, she left her job to raise her children. In the 1970s, she took computer science classes at the University of Colorado, toying with the idea of returning to programming, but she eventually took a tax preparation job instead. By the 1980s, the demographics of programming had shifted. “After I sort of got put off by a couple of job interviews, I said forget it,” she said. “They went with young, techy guys.”
+
+
+ Chaos only reentered her life through her daughter, Sarah. As an undergraduate at Yale in the 1980s, Sarah Gille sat in on a class about scientific programming. The case they studied? Lorenz’s discoveries on the LGP-30. Later, Sarah studied physical oceanography as a graduate student at MIT, joining the same overarching department as both Lorenz and Rothman, who had arrived a few years earlier. “One of my office mates in the general exam, the qualifying exam for doing research at MIT, was asked: How would you explain chaos theory to your mother?” she said. “I was like, whew, glad I didn’t get that question.”
+
+
+ The Changing Value of Computation
+
+
+ Today, chaos theory is part of the scientific repertoire. In a study published just last month, researchers concluded that no amount of improvement in data gathering or in the science of weather forecasting will allow meteorologists to produce useful forecasts that stretch more than 15 days out. (Lorenz had suggested a similar two-week cap to weather forecasts in the mid-1960s.)
+
+
+ But the many retellings of chaos’s birth say little to nothing about how Hamilton and Ellen Gille wrote the specific programs that revealed the signatures of chaos. “This is an all-too-common story in the histories of science and technology,” wrote Jennifer Light, the department head for MIT’s Science, Technology and Society program, in an email to Quanta. To an extent, we can chalk up that omission to the tendency of storytellers to focus on solitary geniuses. But it also stems from tensions that remain unresolved today.
+
+
+ First, coders in general have seen their contributions to science minimized from the beginning. “It was seen as rote,” said Mar Hicks, a historian at the Illinois Institute of Technology. “The fact that it was associated with machines actually gave it less status, rather than more.” But beyond that, and contributing to it, many programmers in this era were women.
+
+
+ In addition to Hamilton and the woman who coded in MIT’s nuclear engineering department, Ellen Gille recalls a woman on an LGP-30 doing meteorology next door to Lorenz’s group. Another woman followed Gille in the job of programming for Lorenz. An analysis of official U.S. labor statistics shows that in 1960, women held 27 percent of computing and math-related jobs.
+
+
+ The percentage has been stuck there for a half-century. In the mid-1980s, the fraction of women pursuing bachelor’s degrees in programming even started to decline. Experts have argued over why. One idea holds that early personal computers were marketed preferentially to boys and men. Then when kids went to college, introductory classes assumed a detailed knowledge of computers going in, which alienated young women who didn’t grow up with a machine at home. Today, women programmers describe a self-perpetuating cycle where white and Asian male managers hire people who look like all the other programmers they know. Outright harassment also remains a problem.
+
+
+ Hamilton and Gille, however, still speak of Lorenz’s humility and mentorship in glowing terms. Before later chroniclers left them out, Lorenz thanked them in the literature in the same way he thanked Saltzman, who provided the equations Lorenz used to find his attractor. This was common at the time. Gille recalls that in all her scientific programming work, only once did someone include her as a co-author after she contributed computational work to a paper; she said she was “stunned” because of how unusual that was.
+
+
+ Since then, the standard for giving credit has shifted. “If you went up and down the floors of this building and told the story to my colleagues, every one of them would say that if this were going on today … they’d be a co-author!” Rothman said. “Automatically, they’d be a co-author.”
+
+
+
+
+
+ Computation in science has become even more indispensable, of course. For recent breakthroughs like the first image of a black hole, the hard part was not figuring out which equations described the system, but how to leverage computers to understand the data.
+
+
+ Today, many programmers leave science not because their role isn’t appreciated, but because coding is better compensated in industry, said Alyssa Goodman, an astronomer at Harvard University and an expert in computing and data science. “In the 1960s, there was no such thing as a data scientist, there was no such thing as Netflix or Google or whoever, that was going to suck in these people and really, really value them,” she said.
+
+
+ Still, for coder-scientists in academic systems that measure success by paper citations, things haven’t changed all that much. “If you are a software developer who may never write a paper, you may be essential,” Goodman said. “But you’re not going to be counted that way.”
+
+
+ This article was reprinted on Wired.com.
+
+
留言列表 (42)
++-
+
+ #1
+
小鳳
+
+ 於 2013/12/28 10:28
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 露營兼賞楓,好棒的生活
+
+
++-
+
+ #2
+
茜媽咪
+
+ 於 2013/12/28 10:42
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 嚮往大自然....再濕冷的天依舊衝衝衝
+
+
+每每分享藍天大哥捕捉的鏡頭 +
總是特別的吸引目光....真得好美 +
對了....我家女兒說....伯伯的露營餐點 +
看起來好豐盛喔 +
+
+-
+
+ #3
+
訪客 於 2013/12/28 20:34
+
+ -
+
+ -
+
+ 藍天哥
+
+
++
您的文筆真是讚 +
+
大雄
+-
+
+ #4
+
linghua
+
+ 於 2013/12/28 21:29
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 哇!好厚的紅毯 趴在地上取景辛苦了!
+
+
+近年天氣消笑 忽冷忽熱
外拍能遇到最美的藍天和紅葉 可遇不可求....
桌上的砂鍋魚頭看起來超讚 +
冷冷的寒冬享用 一定過癮極了!
+-
+
+ #5
+
青草
+
+ 於 2013/12/28 22:50
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 大哥晚安~
+
+
+今天路過美樹營地,真的很美! +
可惜現在楓已落的差不多了!! +
好深山那內的地方,我們由秀巒下玉峰 +
再由北橫三光回家,一路的山景秀麗!!
+-
+
+ #6
+
阿蒯
+
+ 於 2013/12/29 09:50
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 大推
+
+
+不是因為文中的很多”蒯嫂” +
回家之後發現我的”恐山症”竟然好了八成 +
那段石磊產業道路 心理暗唸”阿彌陀佛”不只百遍除了感謝
我詞窮了 +
你們與野馬伉儷的友誼讓我們在陰雨寒冷中覺得溫暖 +
這是一次另人感動的旅程 +
有你們真好!
+-
+
+ #7
+
甄妮佛
+
+ 於 2013/12/29 16:01
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 山嵐 楓樹 落葉 ... 這地方太美了!! 太美了!!
+
+
++-
+
+ #8
+
Cora
+
+
+ 於 2013/12/29 20:27
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 雨霧飄渺中的楓黃楓紅另有一番風韻
+
+
++-
+
+ #9
+
tinned
+
+ 於 2013/12/30 16:49
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 真是拍的漂亮 我是北七強
+
+
++-
+
+ #10
+
莉莉夫子
+
+ 於 2013/12/30 20:37
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 藍天大哥:晚安~
+
+
+哇~睡車上.機動性很強咧~ +
今年的美樹 好美啊~
+-
+
+ #11
+
黑傑克
+
+ 於 2013/12/31 22:50
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 在藍天大的掌鏡下,美樹果然是仙境呀~
+
+
++-
+ 悄悄話
+
++-
+
+ #13
+
飛兒
+
+ 於 2014/01/02 14:31
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 那年 我不是才不約而同到美樹賞楓
+
+
+好快 又過了一年
山嵐在遠方飄移 讓秋楓更有意境
美樹的楓香 不管怎麼拍都很美
石磊部落 我在原民台看過介紹
是一個以種植有機蔬果為主的部落 +
也是一個很美的地方 我還沒去過
期待藍天大哥的分享
+-
+
+ #14
+
王昆
+
+ 於 2014/01/02 15:53
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 欣賞好圖文唷~
+
+
+安安~工作愉快~~順心~
+-
+
+ #15
+
大小姐
+
+ 於 2014/01/02 17:44
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 真是讓人羨慕的生活喔
+
+
++-
+
+ #16
+
王昆
+
+ 於 2014/01/02 20:32
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 賞圖文唷~美唷!! 善知識晚安安
+
+
++
祝您馬年行大運馬上賺大錢唷~ +
+
+-
+
+ #17
+
光頭
+
+ 於 2014/01/02 21:52
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 楓樹 落葉~這地方太美~拍照真美
+
+
++-
+ 悄悄話
+
++-
+
+ #19
+
Sheila Teng
+
+ 於 2014/01/03 19:41
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 台灣能找到這麼厚實的楓葉地毯...不容易呀!!
+
+
+此時若想低拍就會羨慕起那些螢幕可翻轉的相機了~ +
+
控溪吊橋那邊我拍過, 風景真的很棒!
美樹名字取得簡單乾脆... +
這個地方記下來了, 不必去石門水庫人擠人
這裡的楓葉更有看頭哩!!! +
+
+-
+
+ #20
+
阿麗瑪
+
+ 於 2014/01/03 22:44
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 先來說個老梗~落花並非無情物,化作春泥更護花!♥
+
+
+落葉鋪成的地毯真的感覺粉溫馨吼? +
哦~你們南來北往大會師噢? +
美樹營地好美呢!偶們一心一意直奔司馬庫斯所以沒有近來賞景... +
伙食好讚噢!偶們四餐有兩餐試吃泡麵,早餐是吃隔夜飯泡水的硬硬不濃稠稀飯...☹ +
恭喜你們收穫滿行曩♣★ +
噢對!還有怎麼睡車上呢?露營車嗎?偶們去年元旦去國境之南找不到旅館也是當了車床族~睡車上...好累!︿_*
+-
+
+ #21
+
DaiTou
+
+ 於 2014/01/03 23:17
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 楓葉很美
+
+
++-
+ 悄悄話
+
++-
+
+ #23
+
lily
+
+ 於 2014/01/09 15:20
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 第一張相片的貓頭鷹實在是太吸睛了~~
+
+
+這裡賞楓露營真是好地方 +
出去露營能吃到如此豐盛 +
真是超級羨慕ㄋ
+-
+
+ #24
+
tinned
+
+ 於 2014/01/27 15:28
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 北七強的由來ㄚ
+
+
+就很簡單ㄚ 畫圖的時候很單純 很少去想最後的結果
+
北七 還挺不錯的ㄚ 可能是指ㄧ個心境問題喔
+-
+
+ #25
+
養身館的部落格
+
+ 於 2014/11/21 09:36
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 哇~~在楓葉樹下~~露營~~吃火鍋~~別有一番情境喔~~推~~
+
+
++-
+
+ #26
+
訪客 於 2015/11/30 12:45
+
+ -
+
+ -
+
+ 真的拍得好棒好溫馨~~
+
+
++-
+
+ #27
+
qiqichoi
+
+ 於 2016/07/05 18:11
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 真是太美了
+
+
++-
+
+ #28
+
GE台北車庫-小壕
+
+ 於 2016/07/16 14:19
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 好美哦!!!
+
+
++
+-
+
+ #29
+
米可
+
+ 於 2016/07/28 15:07
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 這太美了!好喜歡,我從沒看過,希望有一天可以去看看走一趟!
+
+
++-
+
+ #30
+
GE台北車庫-小壕
+
+ 於 2016/08/10 16:36
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 感覺好享受哦~~~
+
+
++-
+
+ #31
+
tckitkit
+
+ 於 2016/08/22 17:32
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 拍得好美
+
+
++-
+
+ #32
+
Quby
+
+ 於 2016/08/31 21:15
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 再過不久又進入秋天了
+
+
+楓葉照令人很期待呢 +
而且到時候的天氣適合露營 +
不會很濕熱也不會太冷
+-
+
+ #33
+
面面
+
+ 於 2016/09/12 19:30
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 拍的照片真的好美 謝謝
+
+
++-
+
+ #34
+
木博士
+
+ 於 2016/09/19 19:05
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 很美~美術營是帶小朋友去玩的好地方!!
+
+
++-
+
+ #35
+
tw27003265
+
+ 於 2016/09/28 17:18
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 秋之景好美呢
+
+
++-
+
+ #36
+
中壢中古鋼琴中心
+
+ 於 2016/09/29 05:37
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 看起來真美 棒
+
+
++-
+
+ #37
+
Jenny10113
+
+ 於 2016/09/29 19:46
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 好夢幻喔!!!!!
+
+
++-
+
+ #38
+
GE台北車庫-小壕
+
+ 於 2016/09/30 18:49
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 好適合約會的地方~
+
+
++-
+
+ #39
+
廣州十大旅遊景點
+
+ 於 2016/10/11 11:02
+
+ -
+
+ -
+
+ 這篇寫的很好
+
+
+歡迎回訪喔
+-
+
+ #40
+
tw27003265
+
+ 於 2016/10/17 19:47
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 又是看秋景的季節
+
++-
+
+ #41
+
妹子小姐
+
+ 於 2016/12/31 20:33
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 謝謝分享文章喲!
+
+
++-
+
+ #42
+ 蔡敏嫻
+
+ 於 2017/01/18 14:41
+
+ -
+
+
+ -
+
+ 真是個美麗的好地方,感謝分享~
+
+
+